No peace deal in Annapolis but ...

Today begins the much hipped Annapolis Middle East conference meeting, widely attended but also widely expected to yield nothing but smiles and handshakes. The level of attendance is impressive; the Isrealis, Palestinians, Syrians and a host of other Arab and European diplomats will all be there. However the three main leaders who can really effect the outcome of this meeting, namely presidents Bush and Abbas and PM Olmert, are sitting ducks unable to take any giant steps towards peace (or anything else for that matter). By their admission, the Israelis and Palestinians haven't made any progress in the last few months towards resolving the major hurdles of settlements, right of return, borders and security. Therefore, there's nothing of substance to be expected from this meeting in terms of resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, except a committment to discuss these issues (as always).

There are however two important issues the meeting could help in resolving. The meeting can help is calming down the rising Syrian-Israeli tensions after Israel bombed sites in Syria few months ago. The Syrians have proved resilient in the face of American and Arab efforts to isolate them and they've played their cards right in Iraq and Lebanon. But Syria remains venerable. Syria has time and again reached out to the United states but their efforts weren't well received. Syria didn't want to be seen as desperate, so they demanded Golan heights to be included in the agenda as a condition to attend the meeting, and it was added. US, Israel (and Saudi) are keen on separating Syria from Iran, will they use this summit to do so? I doubt it but they just might.

The other major issue is the current crisis in Lebanon. America tried in the past few years to create a New Middle East and used Lebanon as an experiment. US supported the Sunni government against the pro-Syria camp but this move has backfired after the Shia pulled out of the government. US also supported Isreal's bombing of Lebanon last year which didn't sit well with most Lebanese. Now, America wants a pro-US president but it isn't going to get that, so the only way out of this crisis is to reach some type of comprise with Syria. Will this American administration finally change it's ways, of bullying, and reach a comprise with Syria?

insulting Islam/Muslims is hip, example ...

Stalin is, in fact, so cool that he’s often escaping from the secret police and Cossacks in drag, sometimes even in Muslim drag, though Sebag Montefiore does fudge a tad here. “The typesetters, and probably Stalin too, arrived and left dressed as Muslim women in veils.”

NYT

Lebanon in a limbo

Lebanon, for the second day, is without a president and is being run by an unrepresentative government. There's no democracy in Lebanon instead there's a power-sharing arrangement that allocates each religious group or sec a certain position; so the president is Christian maronite, the PM is a Muslim sunni and the speaker of the parliament is Muslim shia.

The Christian maronites are uneasy with the fact that the position of president is vacant and - for the time-being - run by the a Muslim, prime minister Siniora. The shia have withdrawn from the government though they're the biggest religious group in Lebanon. But the country remains peaceful and calm in this difficult circumstance.

I'll post more on this later.

Ethiopia not ready for peace with Eritrea or to leave Somalia

Watching a reply of the interview with the Ethiopian PM, to summarize he's happy with himself; Ethiopia not ready for peace with Eritrea or to leave Somalia. But he's asked some decent questions, I hope the video will be posted online soon.

Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi interviewed on Aljazeera

Aljazeera's Mohamed Adow interviewed Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi, the interview is currently being aired and will be available on youtube soon.

In just two weeks, over 200,000 civilians fled Mogadishu because of Ethiopian troop's bombing of civilian areas and hundreds more were killed. More than a 1 million civilians fled Mogadishu since the Ethiopian invasion.

New PM named for Somalia

Col. Nur Hassan Hussein (aka Nur Ade) was named prime minister for Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG). He's almost 70 yrs old and was not previously involved in Somali politics, and that's a good thing but the task ahead - mainly to reach out to Hawiye clan who mostly oppose the TFG - is a tremendously difficult task. You can find a brief on him here. I'll have more on this later.

Dubai closes two pakistani TV stations

One of the ugly fallouts of the state of emergency in Pakistan was the media crackdown by Musharraf's regime. But the worst episode of this was when two TV stations which were closed down in Pakistan swtiched their broadcasting to their offices in Dubai media city, a supposedly free space for the media, but then president Musharraf told Dubai authorities to close the two stations, and they were closed. Yes, believe it or not, the government of Dubai closed the two stations because of the emergency rule in Pakistan. This is a dangerous precedence but we shouldn't be surprised that the freedom provided in Dubai's media city was as superficial as the rest of the Dubai.

Islamic Courts oppose peacekeeping troops

I briefly met Sheikh Sharif Ahamed of Islamic Courts this morning, he was interviewed yesterday on Aljazeera Arabic. In the interview he was asked easy questions about the current situation in Somalia, about the Ethiopian troops and the proposed UN peacekeeping troops. He avoided saying that the Islamic Courts were involved in the violence in Somalia, instead he said that they had warned that such a mass killing and destruction would take place. He also said that he opposes any foreign troops in Somalia so the Ethiopian troops should leave and Somalis to reach a political deal through a reconciliation conference. He also claimed that he's the head of the alliance for liberation of Somalia (which includes TFG opponents like Hussein Aideed and Sharif the former speaker of the parliament).

Contrary to what Sharif claimed, not all of those who oppose the Ethiopian occupation in Somalia are supporters of the Islamic Courts or part of his alliance, they'd failed to attract people like Ali Khalif Galaydh and prof. Samatar to their camp (these are some of the most important opposition figures to the occupation).

Sharif's language had softened from the last time he was interviewed by Aljazeera, and it seems he's hoping for a political deal. It will be interesting to see whether and how his stance changes after a new prime minister is chosen.

FOX mixes Apple with Abu Dhabi, and on the way creates a new name "Abu Dubai". Brilliant.

New prime minister for Somalia

President of the Transitional Federal Goverment (TFG) Abdullah Yusuf will be selecting a new prime minister tonight. The most likely contender for the position is Nur Hassan Hussein, Secretary General of the Somali Red Cross. He's nearly 70 years old and former Clonel. Hussein like the resigned prime minister comes from Abgal tribe, a Hawiye sub-clan. I'll post more on this later.

Links for 18-11-2007

Aljazeera English: Singing for Somalia (youtube) A group of young Somali refugees in Kenya sing for peace in Somalia. The group have attracted the attention of international media, Aljazeera Arabic had a similar report on them few months back and so has the BBC.

Economist: Conversational marketing | Word of mouse An excellent article on the potential for social advertising, referring to MySpace and Facebook's new advertising models. But this raises serious concerns about user privacy.

BBC: China spying 'biggest US threat' American spies see China's cyber/technology spying as the most dangerous.There has been a number of high profile cases in the past few years.

Rueters Blog: Iranian shelling uproots Iraqi Kurds A less publicized story about Iran. The Iranian are fighting Party of Free Life of Kurdistan (PJAK), and have been bombing Kurdish villages in the border with Iraq (often crossing the border). Poor Kurdish farmers and nomads have been losing their crops and animals to the bombing.

BBC NEWS | Americas | Iran leader dismisses US currency Iran adding to the debate for Opec to switch to stop using the weakening dollar as their main currency. Such a move is unlikely anytime soon, and US will fight it to the teeth, but speculation is growing, and so could be oil prices.

NYT - Bits: Inbox 2.0: Yahoo and Google to Turn E-Mail Into a Social Network Google and Yahoo are planning to turn emails into social networking, interesting but worrying. What's wrong with how it's now?

BBC: Nick Bryant's Australia: Who would you turn gay for? Though I've been away for few years, I still follow Aussie politics. In seems John Howard has serious challenger this time.

El Oso, El Moreno, and El Abogado » Blog Archive » A Virtual Global Organization Describing how Global Voice succeeded in creating a virtual newsroom. worth reading.

Somalia: Links for 17-11-07

AJ English - YouTube: 'Humanitarian crisis' in Somalia as fighting rocks capital
A brief interview with Jenday Frazer, Condi's assistant for African affairs, about the Ethiopian atrocities in Mogadishu (two weeks ago). She tries to defend what the Ethiopian troops are doing but more importantly, the interview shows - and I might be wrong - that US doesn't give a rat's ass about building a government in Somalia. In an earlier interview she said that US is waiting for 2009, when the TFG's mandate ends, to have an election in Somalia, the same as Afghanistan and Iraq, and we can see the results.

Reuters: Mogadishu mayor defends Somali media crackdown
Mogadishu mayor and former warlord Mohamed Dheere defends the TFG's closure of the three radio stations.

BBC: Africa | Somali rebels attack peacekeepers
Al-Shabab, a terrorist group allied with UIC in Mogadishu, threatened to attack African peacekeeping troops a week ago, and now they've done it. The same group threatened to kill some journalists.

Economist: Somalia | Cast adrift

Worse, perhaps, is a sense that Somalia is now being deserted by foreign countries. The harvest in central Somalia seems to have failed; some think it the worst in 13 years. Over 1m Somalis are now thought to be dependent on humanitarian assistance, but only a fraction of the needy are being reached.

Dubai World subsidiary buys Djibouti's Daallo Airlines UAE
Dallo airlines is one of the few ways to get to Somalia, and it does a pretty good job (and profitable). Like most Somali business it's based in Dubai, UAE.

Links for 15-11-2007

PressThink: These Beat Reporters Will Try the Social Network Way
Jay Rosen launches Beat Blogging, a new Journalism/social media experiment. A collaboration with the backing of 13 MSM.

Maybe a beat reporter could do a way better job if there was a “live” social network connected to the beat, made up of people who know the territory the beat covers, and want the reporting on that beat to be better.

Cybersoc: the privacy irony: more or less about social networks
Hamman looks at the problem of privacy vs social networking, and how people don't realize the info they're giving out.

To get the most from a social networking service you need to disclose personal information and the more you disclose, the more you are likely to benefit. If you and those in your network disclose more, you'll probably find it easy to remember social events and birthdays, easier to land a job through your friends and their contacts, easier to find a last minute date without asking someone who is busy, etc. But the irony is, although disclosure of information leads to greater gains, it also increases the danger that someone you don't know will find and use that information in dangerous ways.

FP Blog: 6.2 percent of your income is going to Iraq and Afghanistan
Based on Congressional report, interesting.

Fighting free media in Somalia

The Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has shut down several stations in Mogadishu. The government, Ethiopian troops and the insurgents have been threatening and harassing media organizations and journalists. Several journalists were killed this year alone in Mogadishu and the government have closed many TV and radio stations as well international media organisations like Aljazeera. Few months ago, TFG troops opened fire on Sheabelle radio station offices while journalist were working inside.

Ethiopians have threatened journalists in the pastas well, reminding them that there's no accountability and they could whatever they liked with them (i spoke to a journalists who received a similar warning).

Now a terrorist group called Al-Shabab, affiliated with the Islamic Courts but take their orders from elsewhere, have threatened to kill a Somalia journalist, the owner of waagacusub.com. Al-Shabab could have been behind the killing of other journalists this year but it's the first time they publicly threatened a journalist.

Somali president refuses to acknowledge the dismal state of his government

TFG president Abdullah Yusuf described the current in Somalia as the best it has been for along while  ... what aloud of crap. In the last two weeks alone hundreds were killed and their corpses scattered in the streets, and over 173,000 fled Mogadishu.Those who fled the city went on to join the more than half a million who fled the city earlier this year, with no adequate supply of water, sanitation, shelters or food. How is that the best situation?

Abdullah Yusuf's government has also been harassing journalists, closing TV and radio stations, and even once opened fire on a radio station while journalists were working inside, nothing short criminal. Meet the man who is suppose to create a peaceful Somalia.

Photos of a hospital in Mogadishu

Photos of one of Dayniile Hospital, one of the few hospitals left intact in Mogadishu.

Blogged with Flock

The making of a terrorist, from American point of view

In an article titled What Makes a Terrorist? Alan Krueger, prof at Princeton, argues - using surveys from different sources - that terrorists aren't necessarily the have-nots, he uses the Palestinian suicide bombers as an example. He concludes that:

The evidence suggests that terrorists care about influencing political outcomes. They are often motivated by geopolitical grievances

Well, holding strong political views or wanting to influence political outcomes is merely a symptom but doesn't explain why? Some of the causes might be occupation and oppression or what Krueger calls "geopolitical grievances". You must take into account what the Palestinian people have suffered and continue to suffer. These Palestinian suicide bombers were mostly from families in refugee camps since 1948 and their land, houses and farms taken over by Jews from Europe, America and elsewhere. They're harassed, jailed or even killed on a daily bases. Their entire existence is controlled by the very people who took their land, the Israelis. Could this be part of the cause? Krueger's article doesn't dwell into this, of course.

The article doesn't also go into the issue of defining who's a terrorist. To me, the American soldiers who tortured and killed prisoners in Abu Guraib were terrorists, and so are those of Al-Qaeda who're bombing civilians in Iraq. In the same token, what Israel does to the Palestinian people - and have been doing for the past 50+ years - is terrorism.

Spanish cartoon editor fined for damaging the prestige of the crown"...

Spanish cartoons editor of the weekly magazine El Jueves was fined
3000 euros for publishing a cartoon of prince Filipe. The cartoon was funny:

Their offence was to have published a cartoon last July making ribald fun of the heir to the Spanish throne, and of the government's scheme to encourage women to have more babies by giving mothers a special payment for each new birth.

It was a caricature of Prince Filipe having sex with his wife, Princess Letizia, and telling her: "Do you realise that if you get pregnant, it will be the closest thing to work I've done in my life?"

The journalists were charged with "damaging the prestige of the crown"". It raises the issue of selective censorship in Europe, just last year Muslims around the world were protesting the publishing of cartoons insulting their prophet and Europeans (and Westerners) were saying threy were "surprised" that Muslims got angry. A case of double-standard, yet again, perhaps!.

More than 170,000 flee Mogadishu and hundreds dead

There has been deadly clashes between Ethiopian troops and insurgents in the Mogadishu for the past two weeks. Ethiopian troops responded to insurgency attacks and  the killing of seven Ethiopian troops by indiscriminately shelling parts of Mogadishu. Hundreds of civilians were killed and more than 170,000 civilians fled the city.

Ethiopian troops ousted the United Islamic Courts (UIC) and installed the Transitional National Government (TFG) earlier this years. US government approved of Ethiopia's invasion and supplied it with military intelligence. UIC, Al-Shabab and tribal militias - supported by Eritrea - launched fierce Iraqi-style insurgency in Mogadishu. In April, Ethiopian troops indiscriminately shelled parts of Mogadishu killing hundreds of civilians and an estimated 600,000 residents fleeing the city.

Ethiopian atrocities in Mogadishu and the failure of the TFG to start any meaningful reconciliation process have distanced the prospects of a lasting peace in Somalia. This government (TFG) is the 14th attempt to create a functioning government for Somalia, and like the all the previous 13 attempts, this one has also failed.

Daily life for the few residents left in Mogadishu is getting harder with little humanitarian support from the outside world. The tens of thousands who fled Mogadishu need shelter, water and food but, like the half million refugees earlier this years, little aid will reach them.

Arrogance

Durba waa kibraa sado nimay dacalka saartaaye
Doobi hadduu buusxado, inuu daadhso baa u halis eh

“When fate takes a man on the hem of its robe, he easily becomes arrogant
When a small milk vessel fills up, it is quick to overflow”
(Somali poetry, author unknown)

US army has a huge base in Djibouti, and Bin Laden group are constructing a $20 billion bridge connecting Djibouti and Yemen. How ironic?