Uganda's threat shows the fragility of peace in Southern Somalia

Ugandan soldiers in Mogadishu from AU/UN flickr

There has been relative peace in Mogadishu and other areas previously controlled by Al-Shabab. However, this peace is not due to the efforts of the Somali people but rather enforced by the presence of the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), primarily comprised of Ugandan troops.

Uganda now threatens to withdraw its troops from Somalia due to a UN report detailing its role in arming and supporting rebels in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

This threat worries the Somali government, which entirely relies on the AU peacekeepers for its existence, and the Somali population, who are beginning to believe that peace can return to southern Somalia.

Over the past year, AMISOM has forced Al-Shabab out of most major cities and towns they previously controlled. As a result, Al-Shabab is short on money and recruits, leading to relative peace in Somalia's capital Mogadishu. The peaceful political transition resulting in the creation of a new Somali parliament, the election of a president, and the appointment of a prime minister was made possible by the AU peacekeeping force.

Despite Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni's earlier speeches about his humanitarian intentions in Somalia and his desire for peace (which many doubted), his true motives are now exposed: he uses Somalia as a tool to avoid criticism of his authoritarian rule and his meddling in the DRC. However, it is unlikely that Museveni will actually withdraw his forces due to the UN report, as he benefits politically, militarily, and economically from this intervention.

But what if Ugandan troops leave Somalia prematurely? The consequences for peace in southern Somalia would be devastating. Al-Shabab would likely return to towns like Marka and Afgooye, and possibly even Mogadishu. This would significantly hinder the new government's ability to make any political progress.

The Somali army is largely comprised of militias who were unable to defeat Al-Shabab or maintain peace. Currently, most government soldiers are employed for routine security work at hotels or guarding NGOs and journalists around Mogadishu. Even when fighting alongside the AU peacekeepers, government soldiers often pose the greatest threat to the local population by robbing shops and homes and committing acts of rape.

Somalia's new president stated that creating an effective army is his top priority. However, two months into his term, he has not yet articulated a clear plan to achieve this goal (his predecessors made similar promises but failed). The biggest obstacle is political, as several critical issues need to be addressed before building a unified national army: the relationship between semi-independent regions and the central government, the treatment of warlords and militia leaders who committed major crimes against humanity but currently hold military ranks, and the level of centralization within the army (e.g., will Puntland's army be controlled from Mogadishu?). None of these issues have been addressed so far, meaning the Somali government will likely rely on AU peacekeepers for a long time to come.

Therefore, the most immediate response to the Ugandan threat should be increasing the diversity of troops in Somalia. One proposal, opposed by Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia, is to transition the mission from an African Union peacekeeping force to a United Nations force. This would allow more countries, including Muslim nations like Turkey, to contribute troops to Somalia. In the medium term, addressing the political obstacles hindering the creation of a national army is crucial, while simultaneously training a small, multi-regional force that excludes any warlords or militias.

Refugees returning to Mogadishu

Calm has returned to Mogadishu and so have tens of thousands of refugees. They'd fled the two-year long brutal Ethiopian occupation (that's according to Amnesty) and had been living in dire circumstances since. There is no peace yet in Mogadishu but at least there no fighting, for now. The situation is still tense and fighting could brake out any moment but there is also serious talk about peace.

Islamic scholars, from Somalia and outside, are in Mogadishu and have been mediating between the government and the armed opposition. Why Islamic scholars? because both sides are Islamists calling for the implementation of Sharia. Please read Mohamed Adow's excellent explanation of the current situation here.

No peace deal in Annapolis but ...

Today begins the much hipped Annapolis Middle East conference meeting, widely attended but also widely expected to yield nothing but smiles and handshakes. The level of attendance is impressive; the Isrealis, Palestinians, Syrians and a host of other Arab and European diplomats will all be there. However the three main leaders who can really effect the outcome of this meeting, namely presidents Bush and Abbas and PM Olmert, are sitting ducks unable to take any giant steps towards peace (or anything else for that matter). By their admission, the Israelis and Palestinians haven't made any progress in the last few months towards resolving the major hurdles of settlements, right of return, borders and security. Therefore, there's nothing of substance to be expected from this meeting in terms of resolving the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, except a committment to discuss these issues (as always).

There are however two important issues the meeting could help in resolving. The meeting can help is calming down the rising Syrian-Israeli tensions after Israel bombed sites in Syria few months ago. The Syrians have proved resilient in the face of American and Arab efforts to isolate them and they've played their cards right in Iraq and Lebanon. But Syria remains venerable. Syria has time and again reached out to the United states but their efforts weren't well received. Syria didn't want to be seen as desperate, so they demanded Golan heights to be included in the agenda as a condition to attend the meeting, and it was added. US, Israel (and Saudi) are keen on separating Syria from Iran, will they use this summit to do so? I doubt it but they just might.

The other major issue is the current crisis in Lebanon. America tried in the past few years to create a New Middle East and used Lebanon as an experiment. US supported the Sunni government against the pro-Syria camp but this move has backfired after the Shia pulled out of the government. US also supported Isreal's bombing of Lebanon last year which didn't sit well with most Lebanese. Now, America wants a pro-US president but it isn't going to get that, so the only way out of this crisis is to reach some type of comprise with Syria. Will this American administration finally change it's ways, of bullying, and reach a comprise with Syria?

In Pictures: Ellusive Peace in Eastern Congo

An excellent BBC photojournal illustrating the suffering of the people of Eastern Congo.

My friend has a "peace plan"

My friend Hishmat has an interesting and straight-forward "peace plan" between the West and the Muslim groups fighting against them. He also has the most amazing photo collection from Afghanistan, check it out.