All out war, Ethiopia and Somalia

The real war has began. Just about ten days ago, the Union of Islamic Courts have encircled the city of Baidao by controlling Diinsoor forcing the Ethiopians to, finally, admit they've troops in Somalia. Ethiopia went into full-scale offensive and started bombing the town of Beledwayne yesterday, resulting in the death of many civilians. Aljazeera English reporter Adow, reported from the front lines yesterday.

Today, Ethiopian fighter jets bombed Mogadishu airport. Aljazeera Arabic reports that now Ethiopian troops (together with warlords loyal to the TFG) have captured the town of Beledwayne, Bulabarde and Adale and are moving south-ward to Jawhar.

The president of Puntland visited Baidao just before the war started, Puntland is still loyal to the TFG president Abdulla Yusuf and is a close "ally" to the Ethiopians. There were skirmishes between Puntland and UIC forces yesterday, the worse case scenario would be if that develops into full scale war-front.

The area of fighting is huge, from the north of Galkayo and all the way south, around Kismayo.

There has been many civilian causalities, and thousands have fled their villages and across the border. The humanitarian situation is dire and it will only get worse as the fighting continues. There severe flooding in the south just few weeks ago.

Technocrati Tags: Africa, Somalia

How much is an African life worth?

Young Africans go forth into the sea, and to certain death, just to reach the shores of Europe. Again, dozens of Senegalese youth perished into the sea.

It makes you wonder, how much is an African life worth?

Technocrati Tags: Africa, Poverty

A portrait of the American people

Quick stats:

The fattest inhabitants of the planet, although Mexicans, Australians, Greeks, New Zealanders and Britons are not too far behind.

Americans bought more than 2 billion pairs of shoes in 2004, a new federal book of data says.

At the same time, Americans spent more of their lives than ever — about eight-and-a-half hours a day — watching television, using computers, listening to the radio, going to the movies or reading.

Technocrati Tags: United States

Yemen fires on Somali refugees, again

The UN says that Yemeni security forces fired on a boat crossing the Gulf of Aden carrying refugees from Somalia and Ethiopia. Yemeni officials confirmed the shooting.

This isn't the first time Yemeni forces have fired on refugee boats and as result thousands of Somali, Ethiopian and Sudanese refugees perished in the last couple of years.

Somalia and Yemen had, for centuries, close trade and cultural ties ... it makes you wonder.

Technocrati Tags: Africa, Somalia

One step closer to an all out war

The Islamic Courts, Transitional Government, Ethiopia and US combined forces to eliminate all obstacles to an all out war:

• UIC give one week ultimatum for all Ethiopian troops to leave Somalia
• US accused UIC of terrorism and that "the Council of Islamic Courts is now controlled by al-Qaida cell individuals, east Africa al-Qaida cell individuals"
• And finally Abdullah Yusuf, the President of the TFG declared that he is "no longer under the illusion that peace is possible with the UIC"

Talk about a coordinated effort. It seems an all out war is just round the corner, perhaps in the coming few days or weeks. One glimmer of hope is that the Transitional Government is divided on how to deal with the UIC. The speaker of the parliament, a former businessman who wasn't a warlord (that should give you a clue), has been in conflict with the president and prime minister of the TFG from the beginning, before the government even got to Somalia. He insisted the government be based in Mogadishu, despite of the warlords then, and he actually took the majority of the parliament there. Only after months of negotiations, he agreed to go to Baidao. Just last month has went to Mogadishu and held direct talks with the Islamic Courts and has reached some sort of agreement with the Islamic Courts but his effort were rejected by Abdullahi Yusuf and the Ethiopians (without offering any credible reasons). He is back at it again talking to the Islamic Courts, this time in Yemen. He can reach a deal with the UIC to avert war, the only problem is that president and prime minister (who're both personal buddies of Meles Zenawi from the time Zenawi was a refugee in Somalia) will not accept any deal.

Technocrati Tags: Africa, Somalia

Aljazeera Humours the Daily Show

Male Circumcision, the solution to HIV in Africa?

It’s official people, circumcision cuts the risk of HIV infection by as much as 50% and could be crucial tool for AIDS prevention worldwide. A previous study found that circumcision could reduce the risk by up to 60%, which got leaders, like Clinton and Gates, talking about it as a possible solution. Of course it doesn’t mean that it's a substitute to other prevention methods but certainly it will be one of the most effective and law-cost prevention tools out there. Taking a shower immediately after sex also cuts the risk of STD and HIV transmission. Zuma give a serious issue a bad name when he had unprotected sex with someone he knew had HIV nonetheless it's important to educate people in Africa about it.


Zuma's court testimony causes confusion.

In Islam, males have to be circumcised at an early, sexual relationships outside of marriage are prohibited and after an intercourse, a shower is a must. How about that for STD/HIV prevention!

Technocrati Tags: Health, HIV

Quick Hits 15-12-2006

Some quick links that grabbed my attention in the past week, important and/or interesting:

Audience response to the use of the world 'prostitute' in BBC's reporting: The audience offer feedback on the use of the word 'prostitute' in the recent Ipswich murders. How about that for editorial transparency, full marks for the BBC.

Lawyers Demand Release of Chinese Muslims: Uighur prisoners who were held to get Chinese support for the war in Iraq, and though found not guilty, they're still held because no one is willing to receive them and the Chinese will execute them if handed to. You would expect Muslim countries to come forward, particularly Turkey, but no.

Carter: Israeli apartheid 'worse': Getting out of the preferred line of the Israeli Lobby in US is dangerous. Carter feels the heat for saying what he thinks is right, but in a strange way, saying that Palestinians have rights as well is seen as antisemitism.

Aljazeera report on Egyptian bloggers - تقرير الجزيرة عن حرية المدونات والتعذيب: Aljazeere reports on the case of an imprisoned blogger in Egypt and the wider impact Egyptian bloggers are having on politics and the society at large (Arabic)
Gender bias 'increases poverty': How gender bias in families limits women's input into the decision making and increases poverty.

Why are Jews at Iran's 'Holocaust ' conference? who were the Jews in Iran's Holocaust conference!

Another 'Lost Tribe' returns to Israel: Another Israeli lost tribe, this time in found in India ... fascinating

Insurgency benefits Kashmir wildlife: Because of the insurgency in Kashmir, the general population had to hand in their weapons which is resulted in wildlife flourishing ... interesting

Timeline - Ethiopia vs Somalia: A quick, simplified, timeline of the conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia since independence (but actually it goes back couple of centuries, and the West has always been firmly behind Ethiopia for religious reasons of course but this this time is only for the last.

Marrying across Somalia's caste lines: Yes, Somalia has what resembles the cast system in India, very small though. In the past 2-3 decades, this has been undergoing change because of the Somalis learning more about and practicing Islam. The BBC report here that UIC has forced through a marriage ... great stuff.

Wikipedia: Bilal Philips: The profile of a prominent English-speaking Islamic scholar, currently residing in Qatar. He has been facing all kinds of difficulty and intimidation from Western governments. And human rights activists, particularly in the Muslim world, are interested in those fighting for Western

Tajik girls drop school to marry: Due to poverty and civil war, girls in Tajikistan aren't educated and married earlier ...

Fiery debate over China's dragon: An interesting debate in China over the status of dragons in Chinese culture.

The Boston Globe: Field notes from the underground: An interesting report on the hidden/informal economy in the poorer areas of the city ... interesting

Carter Faces the Rath of the Israeli Lobby

Nice Touch ...

I never thought that people living thousands of miles away in small villages here in Bangladesh would know who I am

Zinedine Zidane (via BBC)

Somalia 2007: A Dangerous Year Ahead

It was an interesting and tense year for Somalia, 2006. There was a complete shift in the political landscape in the south of Somalia. The Union of Islam Courts (UIC) emerged to take control of much of southern Somalia (the area south of Galkayo) and chase out the warlords. For some, particularly the residents of Mogadishu, they finally had peace and law and order after 16 years of warlordism and chaos; they were liberated. The United States was on the losing side, they backed the warlords against the UIC without understanding the grassroots support the Islamic Courts had. The UIC didn't sit on their victory in Mogadishu, they went as far as Kismayo in the south and to the Ethiopian border in the west, effectively encircling the weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Ethiopia, with the blessing of US, have had military presence in Somali for years. As the peace talks between TFG and UIC faltered, the threat of a regional war involving Ethiopia and UIC (backed by Eritrea) became imminent. However, it seems both sides have realized they had everything to lose and little to gain in any direct confrontation and both exercised restraint.

There's no doubt that UIC has raised fears in many Somalis, not because of the myth of terrorism, but some perceive them as another tribal faction using the name of Islam. Though they've done a great job in Mogadishu, many were alarmed when a former warlord nicknamed "Indha Adde" was given the title of Sheikh "Indha Adde" and became a member of the group.

When the UIC started expanding, I predicted and so have many observers, that they will not attack Puntland and so far they haven't. There's a very simple logic to it, UIC and Puntland are of different tribal groups and any attack will be seen as another tribal war; not an attractive option. However, UIC had another impact on the rest of Somalia, Islam is the religion of all Somalis and as a result various groups in Somaliland and Puntland started demanding that Islamic Shari'a be fully implemented. This trend will hopefully continue in those regions, though relatively stable, people are armed and revenge killings are widespread. This is true in the north east and north west regions of the country (Puntland and Somaliland).

The TFG on the other hand, is recognized not only as weak and unpopular, but as a collection of former warlords and incompetent former officials in Siad Barre's regime. The only thing the TFG can boast about is they represent most (or have people from) all Somali tribes, regions and factions. The question is whether they will be able to reach out to UIC and to share power, and recognize that they're in a weaker position (they control only one city, Baidao). Simply claiming to be the legitimate government without having nothing to show for it isn’t enough.

From the time of creation of the TFG, having foreign troops to support the government was an option strongly advocated by many, and mostly opposed by the warlords who then controlled Mogadishu because they saw the mandate of such troops would be to disarm them. UIC have also made it clear that they will not accept any foreign troops in Somalia, perhaps for the same reasons. The Somali people in other regions, don't share the same sentiment however. Many would welcome foreign troops as long as they only concentrate on stabilizing and reunifying the country. But Somalis across the board agree, that there should be no Ethiopian troops in Somalia.

It seems that US has made its mind up to support the TFG against the UIC after a period of hesitation about whether to talk to UIC or not (in fact Shiekh Sharif revealed in an interview with Aljazeera that US officials were having indirect talks with UIC). The US-led security council resolution (along with Congo, Ghana and Tanzania) was finally approved. The resolution authorizes 8,000 strong Africa troops from IGAD to go into Baidao, the seat of the TFG.

A closer look at the resolution reveals that it's impractical to implement it at least for the coming months if not years. It does not address the most important questions; who is going to pay for it? Who will contribute troops? Not all factions in Somalia are in favor of it, so how is it suppose to work? Is it a fighting force or just peacekeeping? and is there peace to be kept in the first place?

The troops will be from IGAD excluding Somalia's immediate neighbors, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti. You're only left with Uganda, Eritrea and Sudan; only Uganda have agreed to send troops (1000 strong) , and as if that wasn’t enough, IGAD which was behind the resolution is now divided on the wisdom of sending troops into Somalia in the first place. UIC made it clear that they will attack any foreign troops in Somalia, and understandably so, because these troops are coming to support their rival, the TFG. To complicate matters further, the TFG backed by Ethiopian troops have already attacked, unsuccessfully, UIC positions in Diinsoor (a strategically important town, about 100km south of Baidao), just two days after the security council resolution was passed. You can find analysis of the resolution on BBC.

The coming year will be another very dangerous year for Somalia. It will all depend on what choices and compromises will the four major players in the south make; UIC, TFG, Puntland and Ethiopia. It’s likely that UIC forces will concentrate on solidifying their control in southern Somalia without attacking Baidao or Puntland. However, if attacked repeatedly and/or threatened they might just decide to take over Baidao, in which case an open war with Ethiopia will ensue. Already the TFG have attacked Diinsoor, a sign that the TFG and Ethiopia behind it are getting desperate (and wish to gain ground before African troops arrive in Somalia). Puntland is backing the TFG for a number of reasons, but most importantly, the president of the TFG Abdullah Yusuf was the former president of Puntland so they will see the failure of the TFG as their own failure (there are other strong historical/tribal reasons as well).

The role of IGAD, AU and the international community will be crucial in filling the gaps in the resolution and pressuring the different groups to reach a compromise. For a start, Kofi Annan urged African countries who might be sending troops to Somalia to convince the UIC that they aren’t an occupying force. But frankly, I don’t think Somalia’s neighbors and/or the international community will do anything different or positive in 2007, judging from the recent history.

The Somali population and refugees in the south (and border areas with Ethiopia and Kenya) will continue to suffer from insecurity, floods, malaria and food shortages. This issue, which is more pressing, is usually given a back-seat to the fighting and “terror” accusations.

Somali Diaspora (which is massive by any standard) is shamefully out of the picture, they may not agree on political issues but how about humanitarian. If they get together they can surely gather enough support to assist the desperate Somali refugees and those effected by floods, this won't happen in 2007 either.

Sister-in-law wins Bronze for Qatar

This is a long overdue news, my sister-in-law, Amal Mahmud Alas, has won the first medal for Qatar in the 15th Asian Games, in shooting. Along with her other two friends, they won bronze in 10 meter shooting event. This is the first medal ever for Qatari women in the Asian Games (they aren't technically Qatari citizens yet).

(photo: she is the one in far left).

The Battle for Diinsoor

Just two days after a security council resolution was passed, Ethiopian and Transitional Federal Government (TFG) forces attacked the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) in Diinsoor (about 100km south of Baidao). UIC has taken over the town about a week ago without any fighting.

Diinsoor and the surrounding villages are important for both sides as the UIC is already encircling Baidao from the west and east and if they consolidate control over Diinsoor they will have cut-off the TFG effectively from the rest of Somalia.

So far, the reports show that UIC is having the upper hand, but it's anticipated (by UIC) that the area of the conflict might widen to the east and west of Baidao. The worse case scenario (even worse than UIC forces clashing with Ethiopia) would be UIC forces against Puntland forces, but this is so far unlikely.

The Islamic Courts have emerged just few months ago and they've already turned everything upside down. The coming year promises to be an eventful and dangerous year for Somalia, I'll have a post on that soon.

Aljazeera in the blogsphere

Listening Post program on Aljazeera English, investigates how new media, particularly the blogsphere, is changing the landscape of news reporting and it's relationship with traditional media.

Technocrati Tags: Media, Aljazeera

Back to blogging and 2007

It has been little more than a week since my last post, I wasn't away or anything, I was enjoying watching the news and the changes in the horizon for the Middle East and Africa. It seems 2007 will be a very interesting year, the United States has finally recognized the failure of its Iraqi adventure and is staring into difficult choices, while Lebanon, Palestine and Afghanistan are struggling with unity governments, and civil unrest.

In Africa, Chad, Sudan and Somalia are in or sliding to a civil war and foreign intervention. The United States seems to have made its mind up about Somalia, give it all up to Ethiopia or another civil war - who cares?

Oppression and human rights abuses against the Uighur people in Turkestan(Xingjiang, China), and those in Chechnya, Northern Uganda and other places continues with more and more silence from the rest of the world.

But look at the bright side, if the US changes its tactics enough it could be the beginning of a solution for Iraq, though the deep sectarian divide will remain, for perhaps decades to come. A new beginning for D R Congo and the blogsphere will cross the 100 million blog.

Whatever you think 2007 promises to be a very interesting year.