Settling scores

Palestinian infighting continues despite Mecca agreement, the reason? the powerful families in Gaza - some Fatah, some Hamas - are settling scores and revenging for their dead sons prior to the agreement. Both parties, Fatah and Hamas, have little control over these families and it isn't threatening - so far - the peace agreement but it shows how fragile the Palestinian society has become. Some even suggest that these families are revenging the killing of family members during the first Intifada, where more a thousand Palestinian were accused of collaborating with the Israel and executed.

Mogadishu residents flee

Thousands of people flee Mogadishu as the fighting continues between gunmen and Ethiopian troops, so far 10 people have been killed and hundreds wounded. The security situation is out of hand, meanwhile Uganda and other African countries are preparing to send peacekeeping troops to Mogadishu. Militiamen fighting Ethiopian troops vowed to fight the Uganda troops too.

Highest Level of violence yet in Mogadishu

Update: anger is mounting in Mogadishu over the shelling of Monday night.

Violence in Mogadishu reached its highest level yet as unknown militiamen fired mortars into Ethiopian and government position. Ethiopian and Gov. forces retaliated with heavy artillery killing 10 people and wounding 100 more. It seems things are getting out of hand quickly.

In another news, the minister of information rejected the National Security Services’s interference with freedom of the press. The TFG imposed, rather naive, conditions on the reporting of the thee FM radios.

Young Somali Scientist

Abdusalam Abubakar (16), a Somali who has been in Ireland for just two years have won the BT Young Scientist of the year 2007. His security code breaker won the administration of the judges:

His complex maths project impressed the judges who described as "remarkable" his command and insight into cutting-edge mathematics.

Many of the young Somalis who migrate overseas have difficulty achieving in schools and end up doing menial jobs like taxi driving and factor work. It's great to see young and bright Somalis like Abdulsalam, good on ya mate!

Somalia Update

As Harold Macmillan’s said “Events, dear boy, events” can often mess up the most well thought predictions, which is exactly what happened to my elaborate forecast of the situation in Somalia 2007. The Ethiopian and TFG troops (which mainly Puntland forces) captured Mogadishu as UIC fled the city heading south, this was something I didn’t see coming (I doubt anyone else had). Luckily, Ethan has been keeping an eye on the situation and had to great posts here and here.

I thought the UIC had many shortcomings and weren’t a solution for Somalia. They incorporated some warlords like Indha Adde and people with dubious backgrounds like Gen. Galaal and former TNG president Abdulqasim. I’ve also criticized their capture of Kismayo, a city which various warlords have been fighting over for years. They’ve also changed their rhetoric over time from one of reconciliation to threat and intimidation. On the other hand, I praised them for bringing peace and security to Mogadishu after more 15 years of warlords and lawlessness. Within days, the city was peaceful, Qat was banned and the city streets cleaned.

The TFG was created after many months of negotiations in Kenya. It includes representatives from all tribes and regions of Somalia, including Somaliland. The president Abdullah Yusuf was a leading figure in the civil war as he fought against Aideed (the elder) for control over Galkayo city. But the prime minister was unknown before he was elected, a close friend of Meles Zenawi (from the days when Zenawi was exiled in Somalia). It also includes warlords, most with positions in the government like the defense minister Barre Hiraale, a warlord who controlled Kismayo for years and Aideed, a warlord (son of a warlord) as the interior minister; to demonstrate his credentials he declared, soon after he arrived in Mogadishu, that his government is thinking of merging Somalia and Ethiopia into one country, the PM was quick to apologize for the remarks.

As soon as UIC deserted the capital city looting started, and obviously people were scared of the return of the return of the warlords (as part of the TFG) and with them chaos and lawlessness. So the most immediate task for the TFG was to restore security and assure people that everyone will be protected. For the first few days it was calm and peaceful. The next task was to disarm the militias in the city, which the gateway for any future peace in the Somalia. The government realized this and PM Gedi met with tribal leaders and announced that Mogadishu must be disarmed within three days or else. Well, disarmament didn’t go well. The three days passed and it was extended another two days, when deadline approached violence broke out and many civilians were killed. The government backed off.

Disarming a city like Mogadishu is a complex and dangerous undertaking but doable (after all, UIC did it). Firstly, heavy weapons are owned by clans so you’ve to assure each clan that other clans will be disarmed as well. As for small arms, there has to be some measure of security in the streets for people to be willing to give up their weapons but crime has only increased in Mogadishu since UIC left. To complicate matters further, the “Somali Forces” patrolling the city are mainly from Puntland and not from Mogadishu. The result was a complete failure, so far, in disarming and securing the capital city.

Meanwhile Puntland announced that it has formally joined the government which meant that most of Somalia, theoretically at least, is under the control of the TFG.

The security situation in Mogadishu is only getting worse because people are still armed. Unfortunately, TFG officials aren’t exactly the most competent of people, most of them have little experience in running a country. So people in Mogadishu are angry because there isn’t security let alone any tangible development.

It would have been ideal if the city was disarmed before the arrival of peacekeeping troops but it seems that it is no longer possible now. The semi-daily attacks on TFG and Ethiopian troops is becoming part of everyday life and I think any foreign troops in Somalia will have a hard-time staying in a city as armed as Mogadishu.

Other key areas such as reconciliation and reconstruction haven’t been given enough attention either. My assessment is that though there’s hope and Somali has, finally, a government that’s controlling most of Somali, the situation is very dangerous and could well lead to the collapse of the government and Mogadishu handed back to the warlords.

Back to blogging and few thoughts on Africa 2006

Back to blogging after almost two months, I should have left a note - something I have learn doing - but I wasn't sure how long I was going to be away from blogging. I've to admit that it took a lot effort to watch the news and not blog about it, so I'm relieved to be back. It was happy events that kept me away, mostly. My wedding was end of Jan 07, and I was in the process of moving to a new position at work which isn't yet finalised.

During the time I was away there were many events in the Middle (Iraq, Iran and Palestine) and in Africa (Somalia, Congo, Guinea, Darfur .. etc). I'd planned to write something about the major events in Africa in 2006, particularly in the place s were things were getting better, let us say the success stories. I wanted it to be detaild and ask some of my African friends to contribute but it just didn't happen. So let me say few words about some of the events in Africa.

Elections in Congo produced a government without - almost - any violence, now a prime minister has been appointed and a cabinet, one less conflict in Africa. There was the deal with the rebels in Uganda which will hopefully lead to a permanent peace in Northern Uganda and a chance for the Acholi people to return to their land.

Mauritania had the first round of elections which went very smooth. Next month a second round - which is more crucial - will be held and tensions are mounting. There are reports that Islamists were barred from contesting and many were jailed.

Somalia hangs in the balance, UIC were ousted and Somalia has a recognized government in the capital city Mogadishu. Now the TFG controls the whole south of the country and Puntland has declared that it's officially part of the government, which means most of the country is under the TFG's control. Further, the international community seems to be eager to find a lasting solution for Somalia, so pledges for aid and peacekeeping troops is finally coming through. However, the government's attempt to disarm Mogadishu went horribly wrong and there are frequent attacks on troops loyal to the government and their Ethiopian allies. Another worrying sign in the TFG is the fact that the government is made up of warlords and people with little or no experience in running a country.

I'll have to catch up and post some of the backlog I've.