Somalia 2007: A Dangerous Year Ahead

It was an interesting and tense year for Somalia, 2006. There was a complete shift in the political landscape in the south of Somalia. The Union of Islam Courts (UIC) emerged to take control of much of southern Somalia (the area south of Galkayo) and chase out the warlords. For some, particularly the residents of Mogadishu, they finally had peace and law and order after 16 years of warlordism and chaos; they were liberated. The United States was on the losing side, they backed the warlords against the UIC without understanding the grassroots support the Islamic Courts had. The UIC didn't sit on their victory in Mogadishu, they went as far as Kismayo in the south and to the Ethiopian border in the west, effectively encircling the weak Transitional Federal Government (TFG). Ethiopia, with the blessing of US, have had military presence in Somali for years. As the peace talks between TFG and UIC faltered, the threat of a regional war involving Ethiopia and UIC (backed by Eritrea) became imminent. However, it seems both sides have realized they had everything to lose and little to gain in any direct confrontation and both exercised restraint.

There's no doubt that UIC has raised fears in many Somalis, not because of the myth of terrorism, but some perceive them as another tribal faction using the name of Islam. Though they've done a great job in Mogadishu, many were alarmed when a former warlord nicknamed "Indha Adde" was given the title of Sheikh "Indha Adde" and became a member of the group.

When the UIC started expanding, I predicted and so have many observers, that they will not attack Puntland and so far they haven't. There's a very simple logic to it, UIC and Puntland are of different tribal groups and any attack will be seen as another tribal war; not an attractive option. However, UIC had another impact on the rest of Somalia, Islam is the religion of all Somalis and as a result various groups in Somaliland and Puntland started demanding that Islamic Shari'a be fully implemented. This trend will hopefully continue in those regions, though relatively stable, people are armed and revenge killings are widespread. This is true in the north east and north west regions of the country (Puntland and Somaliland).

The TFG on the other hand, is recognized not only as weak and unpopular, but as a collection of former warlords and incompetent former officials in Siad Barre's regime. The only thing the TFG can boast about is they represent most (or have people from) all Somali tribes, regions and factions. The question is whether they will be able to reach out to UIC and to share power, and recognize that they're in a weaker position (they control only one city, Baidao). Simply claiming to be the legitimate government without having nothing to show for it isn’t enough.

From the time of creation of the TFG, having foreign troops to support the government was an option strongly advocated by many, and mostly opposed by the warlords who then controlled Mogadishu because they saw the mandate of such troops would be to disarm them. UIC have also made it clear that they will not accept any foreign troops in Somalia, perhaps for the same reasons. The Somali people in other regions, don't share the same sentiment however. Many would welcome foreign troops as long as they only concentrate on stabilizing and reunifying the country. But Somalis across the board agree, that there should be no Ethiopian troops in Somalia.

It seems that US has made its mind up to support the TFG against the UIC after a period of hesitation about whether to talk to UIC or not (in fact Shiekh Sharif revealed in an interview with Aljazeera that US officials were having indirect talks with UIC). The US-led security council resolution (along with Congo, Ghana and Tanzania) was finally approved. The resolution authorizes 8,000 strong Africa troops from IGAD to go into Baidao, the seat of the TFG.

A closer look at the resolution reveals that it's impractical to implement it at least for the coming months if not years. It does not address the most important questions; who is going to pay for it? Who will contribute troops? Not all factions in Somalia are in favor of it, so how is it suppose to work? Is it a fighting force or just peacekeeping? and is there peace to be kept in the first place?

The troops will be from IGAD excluding Somalia's immediate neighbors, Kenya, Ethiopia and Djibouti. You're only left with Uganda, Eritrea and Sudan; only Uganda have agreed to send troops (1000 strong) , and as if that wasn’t enough, IGAD which was behind the resolution is now divided on the wisdom of sending troops into Somalia in the first place. UIC made it clear that they will attack any foreign troops in Somalia, and understandably so, because these troops are coming to support their rival, the TFG. To complicate matters further, the TFG backed by Ethiopian troops have already attacked, unsuccessfully, UIC positions in Diinsoor (a strategically important town, about 100km south of Baidao), just two days after the security council resolution was passed. You can find analysis of the resolution on BBC.

The coming year will be another very dangerous year for Somalia. It will all depend on what choices and compromises will the four major players in the south make; UIC, TFG, Puntland and Ethiopia. It’s likely that UIC forces will concentrate on solidifying their control in southern Somalia without attacking Baidao or Puntland. However, if attacked repeatedly and/or threatened they might just decide to take over Baidao, in which case an open war with Ethiopia will ensue. Already the TFG have attacked Diinsoor, a sign that the TFG and Ethiopia behind it are getting desperate (and wish to gain ground before African troops arrive in Somalia). Puntland is backing the TFG for a number of reasons, but most importantly, the president of the TFG Abdullah Yusuf was the former president of Puntland so they will see the failure of the TFG as their own failure (there are other strong historical/tribal reasons as well).

The role of IGAD, AU and the international community will be crucial in filling the gaps in the resolution and pressuring the different groups to reach a compromise. For a start, Kofi Annan urged African countries who might be sending troops to Somalia to convince the UIC that they aren’t an occupying force. But frankly, I don’t think Somalia’s neighbors and/or the international community will do anything different or positive in 2007, judging from the recent history.

The Somali population and refugees in the south (and border areas with Ethiopia and Kenya) will continue to suffer from insecurity, floods, malaria and food shortages. This issue, which is more pressing, is usually given a back-seat to the fighting and “terror” accusations.

Somali Diaspora (which is massive by any standard) is shamefully out of the picture, they may not agree on political issues but how about humanitarian. If they get together they can surely gather enough support to assist the desperate Somali refugees and those effected by floods, this won't happen in 2007 either.