Turkish Elections: A Resounding Victory for the AK Party

The Turkish people overwhelmingly reelected the AK Party in a landmark election. Held four months early, the election followed massive secularist protests against the AK Party’s presidential candidate, Abdullah Gül. Critics argued that the AK Party posed a threat to Turkey’s secular identity, particularly because Gül’s wife wears a headscarf. However, these protests were widely seen as an attempt by the secular elite to maintain their influence. The election results reflect the public’s approval of the AK Party’s unprecedented five years of economic growth.

In addition to the AK Party’s success, pro-Kurdish independents secured about 27 seats, adding a new dynamic to the Turkish parliament. Meanwhile, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), a hardline nationalist faction, won just over 100 seats. The CHP has vowed to take a strong stance against Kurdish separatists, including pushing for the execution of the imprisoned PKK leader.

What’s Next for the AK Party?

With this vote of confidence, the key question is whether the AK Party will persist with Abdullah Gül as their presidential candidate. If they do, the secularist opposition, including the military, may have limited options to block his election—particularly if pro-Kurdish independents align with the AK Party.

However, if Gül becomes president, tensions with the military—guardians of Atatürk’s secular legacy—could escalate. The military has explicitly stated its readiness to intervene to “protect Atatürk’s legacy,” seeing a first lady who wears a headscarf as incompatible with the presidency. Yet, such an intervention would likely derail Turkey’s aspirations of joining the European Union.

Alternatively, Prime Minister Erdogan might choose a compromise candidate to avoid another political crisis and maintain stability.

Regional Implications

The Turkish election has garnered significant attention across the Middle East. In recent years, Islamic-leaning parties have gained prominence in fair elections, including Hamas in Palestine, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, and the Islamic Salvation Front in Algeria during the early 1990s. This trend reflects widespread disillusionment with corrupt regimes and a perception of Islamic parties as cleaner alternatives. The AK Party’s governance offers a compelling model of balancing Islamic values with economic development and democratic principles.

For further insight into how the Turkish elections were viewed in the Arab world, Marc Lynch provides an excellent overview, which is well worth reading.