Arabs worked hard to make
Iran an outsider in the middle but that has been changing since the collapse of the
USSR. In Asia minor, the collapse of the Soviet Union resulted in the independence of
Central Asia countries. A number of these countries have close cultural ties to
Iran, they speak the same or similar language and have a Muslim population (
Azerbaijan is the only other country - along with
Iran - to have a Shia majority).
Iran has also developed strong relationships with
Russia and
Iran.
Before 9/11,
Iran almost went to war with the Taliban in
Afghanistan so
Iran supported the
US overthrow of the Taliban from the beginning. The new Afghani government is friendly to
Iran.
But the biggest prize, was the invasion
Iraq. Saddam was the archenemy of
Iran. He started the Iran-Iraq war, which lasted for ten years. Arab countries – of course - supported
Iraq both financially and politically. Saddam continued to mobilize the Arabs against
Iran until his last days in power. As a result,
Iran effectively became an outsider in the
Middle East.
Iran could not be part of trade zones and agreements or have a say in the Arab-Israel conflict – after all
Iran is not in the Arab league. For the delight of
Iran, the
US removed Saddam but that was just the beginning.
The Iraqi opposition – before 9/11 - were mostly based in
Iran and were Shia. Some of the most important Shia clerics either lived in
Iran or are of Iranian origins (Ayatollah Sistani was born in
Iran). After the elections and the coming of Shia to power,
Iran penetrated the government, political parties and security forces, a claim supported by many observers.
Arab countries are now have not stake in
Iraq and that’s worries Arab leaders greatly. Lately, the king of
Jordan coined the phrase “
Shia Crescent” to describe Iranian influence in the region. Arabs are worried because a stable
Iraq will have tremendous influence in the region.
Iran have used these opportunities well so far. They have developed good relationships with
Afghanistan and
Iraq. They have also used
Syria and Hezbollah as an entry point to Arab-Israel conflict. There is little disagreement that Hezbollah is supported - and was created -
by
Iran and that Hezbollah has ignited the conflict this time with – at least – the blessing of
Iran.
It seems that both US and the Arabs are watching this trend helplessly. Some say
US might attack
Iran, I don’t think they can.
Iran sits just opposite of the oil/gas fields of the gulf. It has enough military capability to cause the
US some serious pain even if it doesn’t prevail. That’s why US and
Israel are talking about a new Middle East, one without
Iran. Is that possible, that certainly something worth to watch for.
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