For the benefit of Iran

For decades, Arab states worked to position Iran as an outsider in the Middle East. However, this dynamic has been shifting since the collapse of the USSR. In Central Asia, the Soviet Union's fall led to the independence of countries with deep cultural and historical ties to Iran. Many of these nations share linguistic and religious similarities, with large Muslim populations. Notably, Azerbaijan, alongside Iran, has a Shia majority. Additionally, Iran has cultivated strong relationships with both Russia and China, expanding its influence further.

Before 9/11, Iran came close to war with the Taliban in Afghanistan. As a result, Iran supported the US-led overthrow of the Taliban from the outset. The new Afghan government has since maintained friendly ties with Tehran. However, the greatest geopolitical gain for Iran was the US invasion of Iraq. Saddam Hussein, Iran's archenemy, had long mobilized Arab support against Iran, most notably during the Iran-Iraq War, which lasted a grueling ten years. Arab countries backed Saddam politically and financially, leaving Iran isolated in the Middle East. Excluded from Arab trade zones, agreements, and the Arab League, Iran had little say in regional matters, including the Arab-Israeli conflict.

The US removal of Saddam was a significant win for Iran, but it was only the beginning.

Iran’s Influence in Post-Invasion Iraq

Before 9/11, much of the Iraqi opposition, particularly Shia groups, were based in Iran. Many prominent Shia clerics, including Ayatollah Sistani (born in Iran), have strong connections to the country. Following Iraq’s elections and the rise of Shia leadership, Iran quickly established influence over Iraq’s government, political parties, and security forces—a fact widely acknowledged by observers.

Arab states, which once held significant sway in Iraq, now find themselves with little stake in the country. This shift has alarmed Arab leaders, exemplified by Jordan’s King Abdullah coining the term “Shia Crescent” to describe Iran’s growing influence in the region. The concern is that a stable and Shia-led Iraq could wield tremendous influence across the Middle East, further enhancing Iran’s power.

Iran’s Strategic Moves

Iran has capitalized on these opportunities. Its relationships with Afghanistan and Iraq have strengthened significantly, and it has leveraged its alliances with Syria and Hezbollah to insert itself into the Arab-Israeli conflict. Few dispute that Hezbollah is not only supported by Iran but was also created by it. The recent conflicts ignited by Hezbollah have unfolded with, at minimum, Iran’s tacit approval.

Challenges to US and Arab Responses

Both the US and Arab states appear increasingly powerless to curb Iran’s rising influence. Speculation about a potential US attack on Iran persists, but such action seems unlikely. Iran's strategic position, opposite the Gulf's vital oil and gas fields, coupled with its military capabilities, would allow it to inflict significant damage even if it were ultimately defeated. This strategic reality has led the US and Israel to propose the idea of a “new Middle East”—one that excludes Iran.

Whether such a vision is achievable remains uncertain, but it is undoubtedly a development worth watching closely.